Risk assessment of bark beetle mass multiplications in the Gesäuse National Park

The aim of this project was the application of monitoring and risk estimation systems to present the target of this project, the application of monitoring and risk estimation systems for the presentation of potentially endangered sites and stocks in the area of Gesäuse National Park for printing printers as a decision-making aid for the derivation of adequate management strategies for the national park. The direct dependence of the development of the book printer on the temperature allows the creation of a model for monitoring and estimating the potential generation development in the field. Based on a regional topoclimate model, both the start of blackness in the spring, the timing of the creation of siblings and branch generations, as well as the breeding development and thus the potential number of generations/year with the bark beetle phenology model PHENIPS could be calculated. For the breeding development, the bark temperatures, which have been modeled according to the air temperature and solar radiation, are particularly relevant. The modelling and evaluation of potential generations gave the national park and its surroundings a very variable propagation potential of the printer every year, although in warm years, even in higher, subalpine locations, two generations can be successfully completed. The average number of generations per year is an essential parameter for estimating the predisposition for printing printers. The knowledge-based estimation system for deriving the predisposition of forest sites and stocks against Ips typographus is based on the assumption that the probability of infestation is influenced by the constellation of various environmental factors. In addition to the propagation potential of the book printer, local and existing factors such as precipitation conditions, geomorphology, spruce content, stock age (development phase), stock density as well as predisposition for storm and snow damage are used and weighted according to the cause. The assessment and mapping of the predisposition for bark beetle infestation or for storm and snow damage as triggering disturbance factors can be an essential decision-making aid for national park management in spatial planning, prioritisation and implementation of preventive forest conversion and curative forest protection measures.