EFAS seasonal outlook

This data set provides a pan-European seasonal outlook on flow anomalies and their probability of occurrence, aggregated over regions. River flow anomaly and its probability of occurrence for the next 8 weeks, aggregated over regions. The anomaly is calculated from the current seasonal forecast (produced by forcing the LISFLOOD model with the 51 members ensemble from the ECMWF System 4 seasonal forecast) with respect to the 90th and 10th percentiles of the simulated discharge from a 24-year model climatology run (1990 - 2013). The seasonal forecast outlook plots are updated on a weekly basis with the latest weekly averaged water balance. A new seasonal forecast outlook (map and plots) is generated at the beginning of each month when the new forecast becomes available (usually on the 8th of the month). This information is produced once a week by the operational EFAS (www.efas.eu) for the entire EFAS domain in order to provide the EFAS partners with a first glimpse of an upcoming seasonal tendency.