Average rainfall in the winter half year of 2021-2050 (projection)

The map shows the average precipitation projection in the winter half-year (October 1st — March 31st) for the 30-year period 2021-2050 in mm/wi. The basis for climate data is the assumption of the IPPC’s “further-how-as-to-date” scenario RCP8.5 from the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). This is a scenario that describes a continuous increase in global greenhouse gas emissions, resulting in an additional radiative propulsion of 8.5 watts per m² compared to pre-industrial levels by the end of the 21st century. For scenario RCP8.5, a variety of climate projections are available, resulting from different combinations of global and regional climate models (or regionalisation methods). From a maximum available total ensemble of 37 climate projections, a reduced ensemble with 10 climate projections was created at the LBEG using a selection method of the DWD. The particularly relevant climate model data (temperature and precipitation) were subjected to monthly BIAS adjustment (through linear scaling). The periods 1971-2000 are considered as reference time, 2021-2050 as near future and 2071-2100 as a distant future. Shown are the average value of the ensemble considered and the maximum and minimum value of the bandwidth. The resolution of the data grid is 12.25 km * 12.25 km.