Change in the average local relocation potential of the years 2071-2100 compared to 1971-2000 (projection)

The map shows the change in the mean exchange frequency of soil water per year (1/a) for the 30-year period 2071-2100 compared to the reference period 1971-2000 based on climate projection data. Positive values indicate an increase in exchange frequency in the future, negative a decrease. With the help of the exchange frequency (AH) of the soil water, the static relocation potential for non- or weakly absorbable substances can be expressed. The AH describes how often the soil solution is exchanged in the effective root zone in the course of leachate displacement. The lower the water storage and retention capacity of a soil, the greater the exchange frequency of the soil water. The climate also has a decisive influence on the leachate rate and thus on the relocation potential in the chain of effects over the height and distribution of precipitation as well as site-specific evaporation. It should be noted that statements on the concentration and cargo of non-absorbable or weakly absorbable substances cannot be mapped using the method used. Since the validity ranges of the calculation formulas are restricted by the slope inclination, no results are provided for arable areas > 3.5 % slope inclination, nor for grassland and forest > 18 % slope inclination. The basis for climate data is the assumption of the IPPC’s “further-how-as-to-date” scenario RCP8.5 from the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). This is a scenario that describes a continuous increase in global greenhouse gas emissions, resulting in an additional radiative propulsion of 8.5 watts per m² compared to pre-industrial levels by the end of the 21st century. For scenario RCP8.5, a variety of climate projections are available, resulting from different combinations of global and regional climate models (or regionalisation methods). From a maximum available total ensemble of 37 climate projections, a reduced ensemble with 10 climate projections was created at the LBEG using a selection method of the DWD. The relevant climate model data (temperature and precipitation) were subjected to monthly BIAS adjustment (through linear scaling). For the identification term, the basic soil data is supplemented by relief data as well as data on land use. Shown are the mean value of the 30-year period considered, as well as the minimum and maximum value of the bandwidth.