Population forecast 2021-2050 by gender — district-free cities and districts — cut-off date

*Short description The population forecast shows development paths for the future development of the population and structure. The results are differentiated according to the characteristics of age and gender and geographically up to the level of the district-free cities as well as the community members. — *Long description The population forecast shows development paths for the future development of the population and structure. The results are differentiated according to the characteristics of age and gender and geographically up to the level of the district-free towns and municipalities. The results for the districts, the administrative districts and the state of NRW are obtained by summing up the results of the respective subordinate regional administrative units. At the regional level, the calculation horizon extends to 2050. In addition, further model calculations have been made at the state level, which map development processes up to the year 2070. The current population forecast is based on the population status as at 01.01.2021. As with previous advance calculations, the cohort component method has been applied. It provides for a year-by-year update of the starting population by age and gender by deducting the deceased and moving away, including births and inmates. The live-borns of one year each form the new cohort of the year under one year of the following year. This process is carried out for each year of calculation and taking into account established assumptions about the future development of the demographic components births, deaths and migrations. The underlying assumptions were agreed and determined with the state government of North Rhine-Westphalia. In principle, when interpreting the results of a population projection calculation, it must be taken into account that the course of population development shown for the future takes place only under the condition of the occurrence of the underlying assumptions. In this respect, they cannot be understood as precisely expected developments, but can only be interpreted as “if-then” statements.