Global rainfall erosivity projections for 2050 and 2070

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Provided by European Commission, Joint Research Centre

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Dataset information

Catalog

European Commission, Joint Research Centre catalog

Country of origin

EU institutions

Updated

2023.03.21 00:00

Created

2022.04.29

Available languages

English

Keywords

Datasource

Official portal for European data link

Quality scoring

Dataset description

We present a comprehensive set of future erosivity projections at a 30 arc-second (~1 km2) spatial scale using 19 downscaled General Circulation Models (GCMs) simulating three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) for the periods 2041–2060 and 2061–2080. The future rainfall erosivity projections were obtained based on a Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) approach relating rainfall depth to rainfall erosivity through a series of (bio)climatic covariates. Compared to the 2010 Global Rainfall erosivity baseline, we estimate a potential average increase in global rainfall erosivity between 26.2 and 28.8% for 2050 and 27–34.3% for 2070. Therefore, climate change and the consequential increase in rainfall erosivity is the main driver of the projected +30–66% increase in soil erosion rates by 2070.

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