CLIMAAXKorsou Phase 2 — Drought Hazard and Risk Assessment for Curacao

Project: CLIMAAXKorsou Phase 2Organization: Meteorological Department Curacao (MDC)Category: Hazard / RiskLicense: CC-BY-4.0 Description Drought assessment using Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI-3) from 32 years of MDC observations with CMIP6 precipitation projections. Important context: Curacao relies on desalination for 95%+ of freshwater supply. Meteorological drought does not directly threaten drinking water. Impacts are on vegetation cover, erosion, and desalination energy costs. Risk combines precipitation decline hazard with CBS Census 2023 social vulnerability (welfare dependency and water access double-weighted). Files - `drought_by_neighbourhood.csv` — Risk density per 315 neighbourhood per scenario- `spi_monthly.csv` — SPI-3 monthly time series (1993-2025, R11 station)- `spi_projections.csv` — CMIP6 precipitation change and drought frequency per scenario Key Findings - Precipitation declines up to 31% (SSP5-8.5 2100)- SPI-based drought frequency stays stable (~15%) due to self-normalization- Real impact is absolute water availability decline, not statistical drought classification- Vulnerability concentrated in welfare-dependent neighbourhoods with limited infrastructure Methodology SPI-3 calculated from monthly precipitation at MDC R11 station (Curacao Airport, 1993-2025). CMIP6 7-model ensemble for precipitation projections. Hazard index = normalized absolute precipitation decline (0-1). SPI frequency excluded (self-normalizes under climate change). Vulnerability composite: (elderly + 2x welfare + chronic_illness + 2x no_water_access) / 6. Risk density = hazard x population density x vulnerability. Workflow Included in this upload:- `04_drought.ipynb` — Jupyter notebook (all code, visualizations, database writes)- `_helpers.py` — Shared database connections and plot helpers Note: Notebook paths are sanitized for sharing. Requires PostgreSQL with climate_data database. Citation MDC (2026). CLIMAAXKorsou Phase 2: Drought Risk Assessment for Curacao. Meteorological Department Curacao. Zenodo. https://doi.org/19273134