CLIMAAXKorsou Phase 2 — Heat Stress Hazard and Risk Assessment for Curacao

CLIMAAXKorsou Phase 2 — Heat Stress Hazard and Risk Assessment for Curacao Project: CLIMAAXKorsou Phase 2Organization: Meteorological Department Curacao (MDC)Category: Hazard / RiskLicense: CC-BY-4.0 Description Heat stress assessment using calibrated air temperature from satellite-station fusion (GISELLE project). PCA decomposition of 13-year Landsat LST stack combined with wind speed regression achieves R2=0.70 with station air temperature (vs R2=0.009 for raw LST). CMIP6 temperature projections applied uniformly for 2050 and 2100 scenarios. Risk combines hazard with CBS Census 2023 vulnerability indicators (elderly, chronic illness, welfare, overcrowding). Files - `heat_stress_scenarios.csv` — 9 scenario summary (temperature delta, hazard index mean/max)- `heat_stress_by_neighbourhood.csv` — Risk density per 315 neighbourhood per scenario- `heat_reference_calibrated.gpkg` — GISELLE calibrated air temperature hexbins (3,733 hexes, 250m, GeoPackage) Key Findings - Wind speed dominates spatial heat pattern (r=-0.80 with air temperature)- Baseline range: 27.6-28.9C (sheltered urban = hottest, windy coast = coolest)- SSP5-8.5 2100: +3.8C warming, sheltered areas approach 32.7C- Raw Landsat LST is invalid for air temperature prediction on trade-wind islands (R2=0.009) Methodology 13-year Landsat LST stack (2013-2025) aggregated to 250m hexagonal grid. PCA extracts PC1 (74.7% variance). Linear regression: air_temp = -0.024 x PC1 + -0.064 x wind_speed + 28.76, calibrated against 12 MDC stations (LOO cross-validation). CMIP6 ensemble deltas added uniformly. Risk density = hazard index x population density x vulnerability composite. Workflow Included in this upload:- `03_heat_stress.ipynb` — Jupyter notebook (all code, visualizations, database writes)- `_helpers.py` — Shared database connections and plot helpers Note: Notebook paths are sanitized for sharing. Requires PostgreSQL with climate_data database. Citation MDC (2026). CLIMAAXKorsou Phase 2: Heat Stress Risk Assessment for Curacao. Meteorological Department Curacao. Zenodo. https://doi.org/192773018