Extreme Precipitation Risk Assessment for İzmir: Magnitude–Frequency Shift of Design Rainfall Events - CRIZ-ERS

This dataset contains the extreme precipitation risk assessment for İzmir Metropolitan Area developed within the CLIMAAX project. The risk assessment quantifies how climate change alters the frequency and magnitude of a critical design rainfall event (100 mm in 24 hours). Using ensemble IDF datasets derived in the hazard workflow, a magnitude–frequency shift analysis was applied pixel-by-pixel to compute: Future return period of the design threshold Future precipitation magnitude at the same return period Precipitation scaling factor (future / historical) Spatial difference in return period The dataset also includes overlays with critical infrastructure (hospitals, schools, universities). File Descriptions Extreme_Precipitation_Risk_Assessment_Izmir.ipynbJupyter Notebook implementing the magnitude–frequency shift analysis for the 100 mm / 24-hour design rainfall threshold under climate change scenarios. RP_Izmir_threshold_100mm.tifBaseline return period (years) of the 100 mm / 24-hour precipitation threshold derived from historical IDF data (1976–2005). RP_shift_threshold_100mm_24h_rcp45_2041_2070.tifProjected future return period (years) of the 100 mm / 24-hour threshold under RCP4.5 for 2041–2070. diff_RP_2041_2070_rcp45_2041_2070.tifDifference in return period (future − baseline) under RCP4.5 (2041–2070), indicating changes in event frequency. RP_shift_threshold_100mm_24h_2041_2070_rcp85.tifProjected future return period (years) of the 100 mm / 24-hour threshold under RCP8.5 for 2041–2070. diff_RP_2041_2070_rcp85.tifDifference in return period (future − baseline) under RCP8.5 (2041–2070). RP_shift_threshold_100mm_24h_2071_2100_rcp85.tifProjected future return period (years) of the 100 mm / 24-hour threshold under RCP8.5 for 2071–2100. diff_RP_2071_2100_rcp85.tifDifference in return period (future − baseline) under RCP8.5 (2071–2100). critical_infrastructure.zipCritical infrastructure layers (hospitals, schools, universities, district boundaries) used to assess exposure to increased extreme precipitation frequency. Plots.zipMaps and visual outputs illustrating return period shifts and spatial risk patterns under climate change scenarios.